The recently unveiled immigration plan spearheaded by the Trump administration has been pronounced “dead on arrival” by many opponents. Shifting away from family-based criteria in favor of a merit-based system may seem good to some more conservative voters, but the plan seems ignorant of a few key issues. While the Trump administration has expressed a great deal of confidence in the proposal, some have noted that the plan distinctly fails to address a number of Democrat concerns on the issue.

In fact, the shift away from a family-based system calls into question many aspects of family unity and existing considerations that are in place for families coming into the United States. All of this means that the proposal faces a lot of challenges before it can become law. No matter how confident the Trump camp is in their merit-based plan, they will need to garner some bipartisan support if they hope to affect any significant immigration reform.

Regardless of the challenges faced by this bill, it is likely that the Republicans are simply hoping for a positive spin on Trump’s immigration stance going into the 2020 elections. Whether or not the plan brings about any reforms, it definitely lays out a number of key points, as well as the administration’s stance on the issues in question. If we are wondering whether or not immigration reform is likely in 2019, we will have to examine this bill, and its objectives a bit more closely.

Past examples of attempts at immigration reform are worth looking at, as well. Examples such as the guest worker proposal supported by President George W. Bush, or the “Gang of Eight” bill which passed in June of 2013 can provide crucial context for how plans like this can affect public attitudes towards immigration. Whether or not Trump’s new plan is likely to immigration reform will depend on a number of things that require in-depth examination.

What’s Actually In The Proposal?

The new plan consists of two main parts:

• A physical infrastructure element, which is mainly focused on the funding of border wall construction.
• A revamped points system designed to shift the demographics of immigrants coming to the US.

The physical infrastructure element is a hallmark of Trump’s continuing confidence in the wall. Although the issue is complex, and has a lot of implications for immigration, the parts of it contained in this proposal are unlikely to have much bearing on the likelihood of immigration reform. In fact, Trump’s focus on the wall funding is likely to lead to decreased bipartisan support for the plan.

Another large element of the physical infrastructure portion is the modernization of points of entry, in order to allow for more orderly and controlled entry of potential immigrants into the country. Although the plan appears to be quite comprehensive on a number of key Republican talking points, issues such as family unity, catch and release, H1B reform, and a number of key issues are notably absent from the proposal.

Some international travelers willing to travel to the United States may be wondering the difference between ESTA and VISA, and how the proposal may affect the ESTA application process. ESTA is an automated system used to determine eligibility of visitors to the United States under the Visa Waiver Program.

The points system that is central to the proposal is designed to shift the admissions of immigrants away from family-based considerations, in order to focus on merit-based admissions. One main feature of the points system is an admissions test on U.S. Civics. The test is similar to ones you would encounter in high school or college. The points system also takes a number of other important factors into consideration:

• Age
• English proficiency
• Employment opportunities or investments
• Certifications and educational background

These factors outline a number of criteria which can identify higher likelihood for somebody to succeed in adapting to life in the United States. By focusing on these criteria, the Trump administration hopes to influence an increase in high-quality labor, value, and job creation potential coming into the country. While this all seems well and good, there are a number of worthwhile criticisms coming from the other side.

So, How Likely Is Immigration Reform In 2019?

Although this bill is almost surely designed to shift popular perceptions of Trump’s immigration stance going into the 2020 elections, it is unlikely that this bill will see enough support from the Democrat side to actually affect immigration reform. Although it’s always possible that this plan will eventually affect the law somewhere in the future, it doesn’t seem like there is enough attention to the issues at hand to make a difference as-is.