China’s Economic Growth Forecast Upgraded Amid Global Tensions

World Bank Raises 2025 Projection to 4.8% Despite Trade Uncertainties. The World Bank upgraded China’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.8% on October 7, 2025, up from its previous 4.0% projection despite ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, when China grew at 5.4% and 5.2% in the first two quarters, respectively. China’s Golden Week holiday from October 1-7 demonstrated robust domestic consumption, with total spending reaching 809 billion yuan ($113.52 billion) and 888 million trips recorded. However, average spending per trip declined to 911.04 yuan, indicating some consumer caution amid economic uncertainties. The World Bank warned that growth is expected to moderate to 4.2% in 2026 due to an anticipated slowdown in export growth and reduced fiscal stimulus.

The forecast upgrade comes as China’s technology-driven “intelligent economy” shows resilience, with AI and semiconductor sectors performing strongly. Beijing’s trade-in policies for consumer goods and infrastructure investments have supported retail sales growth, though restaurant and luxury sectors face headwinds from anti-extravagance regulations. Analysts note that while new consumption trends show promise, broader economic challenges in manufacturing and real estate continue to weigh on overall growth prospects.