Prediction Market Traders Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs as Supreme Court Ruling Looms.

As a landmark Supreme Court ruling looms, prediction market traders are increasingly sceptical that President Trump’s ambitious tariff agenda will survive legal scrutiny. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, odds favoring the administration have plummeted to roughly 30%, reflecting a sharp decline in confidence following November’s oral arguments.

The stakes are staggering. Since the “Liberation Day” tariffs began in April, revenue has surged, with the Treasury collecting over $215 billion in fiscal year 2025 alone. Trump has framed these duties as essential for national solvency, warning on Truth Social that the U.S. will be “screwed” if the Court blocks them.

However, investors are putting their money where their doubt is, betting that the justices will favor constitutional limits over executive trade power. With billions in revenue and the administration’s core economic strategy on the line, the financial world is bracing for a decision that could reshape American trade forever.